I just exited my short oil position for a nominal 10 pip profit on oil. The trade was a risky but valid one, but I have no interest in holding over the weekend. I will reassess if there is a valid trade on oil next week.
The S&P Short position I will hold onto. This one will take longer to play out.
Cheers.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Monitoring the S&P
The S&P is starting it's slide, but it could be in for a bouncy ride. It's if price gets into 1630 that the big sellers and volume step in, so even though the trade is in profit right now I know I need to be able to stomach it if prices get back up to test the price at my Stop Loss order.
The set up is good, and now I just wait and see how it plays out.
Cheers.
The set up is good, and now I just wait and see how it plays out.
Cheers.
Oil is at Resistance
I took a small short position with oil at $97, stop loss placed at $97.58 based on my own analysis.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. This is for informational purposes only. For more information on oil and a forecast on price, I refer you to the Oil and Gold Guy's Daily Newsletter. Subscriptions to the newsletter can be purchased by clicking the link.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. This is for informational purposes only. For more information on oil and a forecast on price, I refer you to the Oil and Gold Guy's Daily Newsletter. Subscriptions to the newsletter can be purchased by clicking the link.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Is It Time to Take Advantage of the S&P Bounce?
I have opened a short position with the S&P 500. I entered the position at 1609.6, and have place my Stop Loss at 1630.38, and my Limit Order is set for 1560.4, but I may adjust this shortly.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. This is for informational purposes only, and for personal record keeping. The analysis for this trade is accessible to members who subscribe to the Technical Traders daily newsletter called The Oil and Gold Guy for a nominal fee.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. This is for informational purposes only, and for personal record keeping. The analysis for this trade is accessible to members who subscribe to the Technical Traders daily newsletter called The Oil and Gold Guy for a nominal fee.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Gold Bear Flag
Based on my own analysis and I exited my long Gold position because a bear flag was forming. I incurred a nominal loss on the trade.
I repositioned myself and opened a short at $1276.65, and took profit at $1270.35. It has fallen even further since, but no entry point as presented itself to get back in.
I repositioned myself and opened a short at $1276.65, and took profit at $1270.35. It has fallen even further since, but no entry point as presented itself to get back in.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
How Much Should I Risk for Each Trade?
Different traders are going to have different goals and will differences in how much risk they are willing to tollerate.
My rule of thumb is to risk between 1% and 3% of my account for any given trade if I am trading conservatively, and between 3% and 5% if I am making a more aggressive trade. I might make a conservative trade when I am trading against the trend, and an aggressive one when I am trading with the trend.
One way of putting the amount of money risked into perspective is to put it into terms of how many consecutive losing trades an account could tolerate.
If I made exclusively conservative trades, I would be able to make between 15 to 50 losing trades before my account would be down 50%. If I made exclusively aggressive trades I would be able to make between 10 to 15 consecutive losing trades before my account would be down 50%.
Now obviously I do not want to be anywhere near being down 50%, but if you are a good, educated, knowledgeable, and most importantly, unemotional, trader who takes smart, calculated risks (almost impossible for newbie traders, and still very difficult for even experienced traders to achieve), this outcome becomes much less likely. I like to have that perspective in mind though, because it lets you know just how far you are away from a worst-case scenerio, and one traders always need to be aware of.
Here is a little chart to help you see just how much I might risk per trade depending on the size of my account:
Account Balance: Conservative Trading Strategy: Aggressive Trading Strategy:
$500 $5 to $15 per trade $15 to $25 per trade
$1000 $10 to $30 per trade $30 to $50 per trade
$2000 $20 to $60 per trade $60 to $100 per trade
$5000 $50 to $150 per trade $150 to $250 per trade
$10,000 $100 to $300 per trade $300 to $500 per trade
$20,000 $200 to $600 per trade $600 to $1000 per trade
A note to the newbies out there: Opening up an account with just $500 means that you would be smart to want to keep the amount you are willing to risk between $5 and $15 per trade. In order to be a successful trader, you would have to pick the perfect entry point in order to make a successful trade. In addition, you must take into account that a trade for most major currency pairs will cost you at least $5 if you are purchasing mini lots ($10,000). That means that you have to get the PERFECT entry in order to keep within your risk tolerance range. Nailing that perfect entry point when a currency is at it's lowest point before moving up, or it's highest point before moving down, is virtually impossible. You are more likely to win the lottery or get struck by lightening.
One thing you might take away from this is that forex trading does require a moderate investment. With a $500 account balance, a trader will be compelled to risk 10% or more of his account balance in order to give themselves a modest price range in which to purchase a currency. This, however, leaves them exposed to losing their entire account balance. Risking 10% on a single trade, going back to that worst case scenario, means that after 5 consecutive losing trades your account will be down to 50% of what it was originally, or that your balance will be $250 instead of $500.
Once your account gets down to this level, you are at risk of not having enough money to make a trade. Every trade requires a certain amount of "margin", or money in your account in order to place the trade. It's not unusual for most currencies pairs to require a margin of approximately $100, and for some commodities, such as silver, it can require a margin amount in the neighbourhood of $200. If your account is down to $250 you barely have enough money to place a trade. If you click the "Buy" or "Sell" button in this scenario a window will pop up telling you that you have insufficient margin, and the trade will not go through.
I know that some traders want to get into Forex, but don't have $5000 in capital to invest. If you are opening up an account with a minimal amount of capital, you would be wise trade as conservatively as possible, and realize that the risk actually increases because the chances of entering a position within 5 pips of the price going in your favour is highly unusual.
Best of luck traders.
My rule of thumb is to risk between 1% and 3% of my account for any given trade if I am trading conservatively, and between 3% and 5% if I am making a more aggressive trade. I might make a conservative trade when I am trading against the trend, and an aggressive one when I am trading with the trend.
One way of putting the amount of money risked into perspective is to put it into terms of how many consecutive losing trades an account could tolerate.
If I made exclusively conservative trades, I would be able to make between 15 to 50 losing trades before my account would be down 50%. If I made exclusively aggressive trades I would be able to make between 10 to 15 consecutive losing trades before my account would be down 50%.
Now obviously I do not want to be anywhere near being down 50%, but if you are a good, educated, knowledgeable, and most importantly, unemotional, trader who takes smart, calculated risks (almost impossible for newbie traders, and still very difficult for even experienced traders to achieve), this outcome becomes much less likely. I like to have that perspective in mind though, because it lets you know just how far you are away from a worst-case scenerio, and one traders always need to be aware of.
Here is a little chart to help you see just how much I might risk per trade depending on the size of my account:
Account Balance: Conservative Trading Strategy: Aggressive Trading Strategy:
$500 $5 to $15 per trade $15 to $25 per trade
$1000 $10 to $30 per trade $30 to $50 per trade
$2000 $20 to $60 per trade $60 to $100 per trade
$5000 $50 to $150 per trade $150 to $250 per trade
$10,000 $100 to $300 per trade $300 to $500 per trade
$20,000 $200 to $600 per trade $600 to $1000 per trade
A note to the newbies out there: Opening up an account with just $500 means that you would be smart to want to keep the amount you are willing to risk between $5 and $15 per trade. In order to be a successful trader, you would have to pick the perfect entry point in order to make a successful trade. In addition, you must take into account that a trade for most major currency pairs will cost you at least $5 if you are purchasing mini lots ($10,000). That means that you have to get the PERFECT entry in order to keep within your risk tolerance range. Nailing that perfect entry point when a currency is at it's lowest point before moving up, or it's highest point before moving down, is virtually impossible. You are more likely to win the lottery or get struck by lightening.
One thing you might take away from this is that forex trading does require a moderate investment. With a $500 account balance, a trader will be compelled to risk 10% or more of his account balance in order to give themselves a modest price range in which to purchase a currency. This, however, leaves them exposed to losing their entire account balance. Risking 10% on a single trade, going back to that worst case scenario, means that after 5 consecutive losing trades your account will be down to 50% of what it was originally, or that your balance will be $250 instead of $500.
Once your account gets down to this level, you are at risk of not having enough money to make a trade. Every trade requires a certain amount of "margin", or money in your account in order to place the trade. It's not unusual for most currencies pairs to require a margin of approximately $100, and for some commodities, such as silver, it can require a margin amount in the neighbourhood of $200. If your account is down to $250 you barely have enough money to place a trade. If you click the "Buy" or "Sell" button in this scenario a window will pop up telling you that you have insufficient margin, and the trade will not go through.
I know that some traders want to get into Forex, but don't have $5000 in capital to invest. If you are opening up an account with a minimal amount of capital, you would be wise trade as conservatively as possible, and realize that the risk actually increases because the chances of entering a position within 5 pips of the price going in your favour is highly unusual.
Best of luck traders.
Can Gold Catch a Bounce?
I have purchased a small amout of gold at $1276.5 and place the stop loss at $1270 on a potential relief bounce. I have placed my limit at 1300.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. You can view the analysis behind this trade by purchasing a subscription to newsletter called Technical Traders Ltd.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. You can view the analysis behind this trade by purchasing a subscription to newsletter called Technical Traders Ltd.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
May's Monthly Report
Here is the report from May's Trades showing the trades I made through out the month with the profit or loss I incurred from each trade. I am up $488.40 over the course of this month.
If you have been following the trade alerts sent out by subscribing to Chris Vermeulen's Alert Service, then you may have experienced similar results. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Summary:
Number of Completed Trades: 12
Number of Trades Still Open: 0
Number of Profitable Trades: 9
Number of Losing Trades: 3
Profit/Loss: +$488.40
If you have been following the trade alerts sent out by subscribing to Chris Vermeulen's Alert Service, then you may have experienced similar results. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Number of Completed Trades: 12
Number of Trades Still Open: 0
Number of Profitable Trades: 9
Number of Losing Trades: 3
Profit/Loss: +$488.40
S&P and Silver Not Recovering -- Positions Stopped Out
My S&P and Silver positions were both stopped out this morning.
The downward slide that started yesterday after the FOMC is continuing. In the announcement, there was mention that we can expect a slow unwinding of the QE in the future, and that was enough to cause considerable panic selling.
The S&P:
While there is still potential for another push up in stocks once the panic subsides we are price is sitting at a support level. I got stopped out on the S&P by a pip and a half. It's frustrating, but it happens. It is time to "Wait and See Where it Goes", not time to "Take a Gamble and Guess". Price is at a support level right now, and that support level could either hold, or it could break.
The plan is to take advantage when some evidence comes in to suggest which way price will go; and that will only be provided with time.
In the bigger picture, there is certainly evidence to suggest that the S&P is topping. The uptrend is losing steam, and it will eventually roll over. But I am not in the business of picking tops. In my experience there is no money in that. Until it is confirmed that it has topped, I will not be guessing where that top may be.
Silver:
A new low was broken. Was the low pierced and it will recover? Or will it start a whole new wave of selling? The low offered considerable support, and the trade to go long was a valid one. I will be waiting to see where it will go and wait for a good set-up.
This post is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold on to a position. This is for informational puposes only, and to log and track my own trades. For more analysis on the S&P, silver, and other commodities, please subscribe to Chris Vermeulen's Alert Service.
The downward slide that started yesterday after the FOMC is continuing. In the announcement, there was mention that we can expect a slow unwinding of the QE in the future, and that was enough to cause considerable panic selling.
The S&P:
While there is still potential for another push up in stocks once the panic subsides we are price is sitting at a support level. I got stopped out on the S&P by a pip and a half. It's frustrating, but it happens. It is time to "Wait and See Where it Goes", not time to "Take a Gamble and Guess". Price is at a support level right now, and that support level could either hold, or it could break.
The plan is to take advantage when some evidence comes in to suggest which way price will go; and that will only be provided with time.
In the bigger picture, there is certainly evidence to suggest that the S&P is topping. The uptrend is losing steam, and it will eventually roll over. But I am not in the business of picking tops. In my experience there is no money in that. Until it is confirmed that it has topped, I will not be guessing where that top may be.
Silver:
A new low was broken. Was the low pierced and it will recover? Or will it start a whole new wave of selling? The low offered considerable support, and the trade to go long was a valid one. I will be waiting to see where it will go and wait for a good set-up.
This post is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold on to a position. This is for informational puposes only, and to log and track my own trades. For more analysis on the S&P, silver, and other commodities, please subscribe to Chris Vermeulen's Alert Service.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
S&P and Silver
I have gone long on the S&P at 1627.6, and long on silver at 21.3. I have placed stop losses at 1600, and 20.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
To check out the analysis on this trade, please see CV Analysis
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
To check out the analysis on this trade, please see CV Analysis
Oil Appears to Be Stalling
I have closed my long oil position. It increased nicely this morning, but it was on low volume, and it has since backed off. The Fed today could mean some crazy price action for many markets today.
I closed it for a small profit.
This is not a recommendation to sell oil, or to close an open position. It is for informational purposes, and is personal reference.
I closed it for a small profit.
This is not a recommendation to sell oil, or to close an open position. It is for informational purposes, and is personal reference.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Has Silver Bottomed?
I have placed an order to buy silver at 21 with a stop loss set at 20. My take profit point is open.
When silver dipped to $20.16 on June 17, 2013, most of the long positions were shaken out and the price bounced right back up. The $20 price point should now offer strong support. The price action may bounce between 20 and 21 as silver looks for it's footing. I will be watching the price action closely. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but if you'd like the detailed analysis on this trade to evaluate the risks on your own, please visit CV Analysis.
My long oil position is still open.
When silver dipped to $20.16 on June 17, 2013, most of the long positions were shaken out and the price bounced right back up. The $20 price point should now offer strong support. The price action may bounce between 20 and 21 as silver looks for it's footing. I will be watching the price action closely. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but if you'd like the detailed analysis on this trade to evaluate the risks on your own, please visit CV Analysis.
My long oil position is still open.
Sitting Tight with a Long Oil Position
We had a nice rally this morning on oil, and it is now pulling back a bit. I continue to wait for oil to climb to the 100.00 level, and my long position is set to close at 99.8 to ensure I catch the price and close out at a profit.
For the analysis on this trade please subscribe to: CV Analysis
For the analysis on this trade please subscribe to: CV Analysis
Monday, June 17, 2013
Is Oil Worth Holding On To?
I will be holding on to my oil position through the overnight unless my stop loss or limit order is hit.
For those needing catch-up I purchased oil at 97.75, have a stop loss of 97, and limit order of 99.8.
Signing off for the day...
For those needing catch-up I purchased oil at 97.75, have a stop loss of 97, and limit order of 99.8.
Signing off for the day...
Is it Time to Go Long on Oil?
The set up for oil was good enough for me. As mentioned this morning, I placed an order to buy if the price dipped to 97.75 and this order automatically got filled. My stop loss is set for 97, and limit is set at 99.8 just in case it doesn't peirce 100.00.
To view the analysis please see: CV Analysis
To view the analysis please see: CV Analysis
Possible Opportunity to Buy Oil
If oil slips back to 97.75 I will be looking to buy.
I have set a limit order to trigger at 99.80, just shy of the psychological 100 mark to ensure I lock in profits. My stop loss is set to an even 97.00.
Cheers.
I have set a limit order to trigger at 99.80, just shy of the psychological 100 mark to ensure I lock in profits. My stop loss is set to an even 97.00.
Cheers.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Are Gold and Silver Carving Out a Bottom?
It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.
Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.
While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.
Read more...
Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.
While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.
Read more...
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