This week might seem like a week of missed opportunities, but really, it only seems that way because many of our entry and and exit points were cautious. Not a bad thing, but it means the temptation to kick yourself when every trade would have worked out. The key to be a successful trader though, is to go on what you know, and to recognize that you can't see into the future. You've got to assess the risk on every trade you make, and if you start letting previous trades get to you, that's when you make emotional mistakes that cost you money. Erring on caution is less likely to lose you money, but erring on emotion and non-calculated risks can wreak havoc on your bank account. You've got to bide your time, and then strike when the reward is in tune with the risk and your bank balance, and your appetite for risk. Trading is a game of patience, and we've been tested in that all week. All said and done, we're in the black, so while the missed opportunities can hurt a little, we can come away saying we've done alright this week.
USD/CAD (closed, profit)
There were signs that the USD was bottoming out and we timed our entry point to go long on the pair (Buy USD) on Monday May 24th. As the trade matured, a reassessment of a number of factors lead me to dump the pair for a small 15 pip profit. The news of the 101 billion dollars of government debt notes to be auctioned off this week certainly indicated that the USD bounce we were hoping to get in on was more likely a blip. It didn't help that the markets were pretty thin due to the holiday Monday in a number of countries. A thinner market makes for more unpredictable fluctuations.
EUR/USD (closed, profit)
The thin market also made me nervous about the EUR/USD short (sold EUR) initiated on the holiday Monday, and I decided to bail at the break even point. It turns out it was overly cautious, and the pair did eventually drop, but hind sight is always 20/20.
AUD/USD (never an active trade)
The entry point to get short on this pair (sell AUD) was just missed, but all systems pointed to go in terms of leaving the order open and sell the pair when the price came back up to our entry point. I got word that some of you got in, and others did not. I was one of the ones who missed the entry point and my order was not fulfilled. The price of the pair hit our entry point just barely and so briefly that not all orders were fulfilled before the price fell shy. Our take profit point of 74.75 was not reached, but I believe many of my followers got out at around 77.7 as it didn't look as though it was going to mature any further in our favour.
USD/CAD (open, in profit)
On May 27th I sold a unit at 1.1110 and this trade is still active, up about 200 pips. Our take profit level is at 1.087, but I may adjust that to somewhere in the 1.05 range, and adding another unit is not out of the question either. Keep posted on my trades as I make them by following me on twitter. The pair has been in decline because of the treasuries, but if stocks continue to be on the rise, that decline is set to continue. Some speculate that USD/CAD could trade at par by the end of the year, but we'll see what the markets have to say about that.
USD/CAD +15 pips
EUR/USD 0 pips
USD/CAD (still open, at approximately +200 pips)
Weekly Evaluation and Performance:
Weekly Gains: +15 pips, $15
Total Gains: -265 pips, down 53% of original investment
Sample Portfolio:
Initial Investment: $500
Weekly Pip Gain: +15
Weekly Monetary Gains: +$15
Current Balance: $265
Portfolio Activity and Performance:
Status - Pair - Action - Result
closed, USD/CAD, buy 1 unit, +15 pips or +$15
closed, EUR/USD, sell 1 unit, +0 pips
open, USD/CAD, sell 1 unit, (unrealized profit at 208 pips, or $190)
Weekly Trade Total: 2 completed trades this week
Weekly Report Card: 100% or 2/2 trades profitable, +15 pips
Trade Total: 6 completed trades
Trade Report Card: 50% or 3/6 trades profitable, -265 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone. Go to www.twitter.com search for Aaron Reid or BDIForex
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Weekly Evaluation May 17 - May 22
Hello Fellow Traders:
For those who are following along, last week was a rough week for trading. Here's my analysis and retrospect on the week gone by:
Evaluation:
AUD/JPY (Closed, Targets Reached)
We made a quick and easy trade at the top of the week selling AUD/JPY for a 30 pip profit. A small but successful trade. (100% successful)
AUD/JPY (Closed, Stopped Out)
Our second attempt in one week at an AUD/JPY short (a.k.a. sell the pair) did not turn out as well as our first attempt. We hit both our entry points at 73.80 and 73.55, but the pair just kept rising until we got stopped out at 74.20. We lost approximately 60 pips on that one, but the reward, had our target been reached, made it worth the minimal 60 pip risk. (0% successful)
EUR/JPY (Closed, Stopped Out)
We got stopped out on the EUR/JPY short. We were trading against the trend on that one making it a little riskier, but it was played fairly tight, risking approximately 150 pips. The S&P, and stocks in general, were over-bought and looked poised to fall, and we were expecting the JPY to fall as the market became averse to risk. As mentioned, this was against the greater trend, but there was plenty to back up the decision to sell the pair. If you are following me along on twitter, I do my best to follow up trade actions with the risk assessment and reasoning behind each one so that you can evaluate for yourself whether the trade is one you are willing to make. I am going to try to add sections to my blog soon to help you make the best trade decisions given your risk appetite and start-up investment. So pleased stay tuned for them. (0% successful)
USD/CAD (Closed, Stopped Out)
Last but not least, I bought 1 unit of USD/CAD because the USD is so ready to bounce. It didn't happen for us last week, but it's going to happen. I am currently re-assessing a new entry point so we don't miss out on what will likely be a considerable move. (0% successful)
AUD/USD (Ordered, Not Yet Open)
Our entry point to this sell this pair has not yet been reached. My order is still active, and I will update you if anything changes. For immediate updates on my trading activities, follow me on twitter (open an account and search for BDIforex (all one word) in the search bar). See below for more details.
Overall, it was certainly not the best week, but in re-evaluating the numbers and trends, there was nothing reckless about this week. My stops were kept tight, and the risks were calculated. There was nothing flimsy in my reasoning or research. Weeks like this provide as stark reminders of the Number 1 Rule in trading (or investing in general): Never invest more than you can afford to loose. Again, be on the look out to find out exactly what that means to you in future blogs. I will help you to know how much you to trade depending on how averse you are to risk and how much you are willing to invest into FX Trading. I win when YOU win! And to win, you have to take a couple of losses in the process. The key is to maintain enough of a nest egg to continue making smart trades even if a few of them don't work out as expected.
Expect updates on trades soon, as there are some pairs that look quite good at the moment.
Sample Portfolio:
Initial Investment: $500
Weekly Pip Gain: -280
Weekly Gains: -50%
Current Balance: $250
Portfolio Chart:
Status: Pair: Action: Result:
closed, AUD/JPY sell 1 unit, +30 pips
closed, AUD/JPY sell 1 +1 unit, -60 pips
closed, EUR/JPY sell 1 +1 unit, -150 pips
closed, USD/CAD buy 1 unit, -100 pips
Weekly Total: 4 trades, Trade Report Card 25%, or 1/4 trades profitable (25%) -280 pips
Life Total: 4 trades, Trade Report Card: 25% or 1/4 trades profitable (25%) -280 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone.
www.twitter.com, search for Aaron Reid or BDIForex
For those who are following along, last week was a rough week for trading. Here's my analysis and retrospect on the week gone by:
Evaluation:
AUD/JPY (Closed, Targets Reached)
We made a quick and easy trade at the top of the week selling AUD/JPY for a 30 pip profit. A small but successful trade. (100% successful)
AUD/JPY (Closed, Stopped Out)
Our second attempt in one week at an AUD/JPY short (a.k.a. sell the pair) did not turn out as well as our first attempt. We hit both our entry points at 73.80 and 73.55, but the pair just kept rising until we got stopped out at 74.20. We lost approximately 60 pips on that one, but the reward, had our target been reached, made it worth the minimal 60 pip risk. (0% successful)
EUR/JPY (Closed, Stopped Out)
We got stopped out on the EUR/JPY short. We were trading against the trend on that one making it a little riskier, but it was played fairly tight, risking approximately 150 pips. The S&P, and stocks in general, were over-bought and looked poised to fall, and we were expecting the JPY to fall as the market became averse to risk. As mentioned, this was against the greater trend, but there was plenty to back up the decision to sell the pair. If you are following me along on twitter, I do my best to follow up trade actions with the risk assessment and reasoning behind each one so that you can evaluate for yourself whether the trade is one you are willing to make. I am going to try to add sections to my blog soon to help you make the best trade decisions given your risk appetite and start-up investment. So pleased stay tuned for them. (0% successful)
USD/CAD (Closed, Stopped Out)
Last but not least, I bought 1 unit of USD/CAD because the USD is so ready to bounce. It didn't happen for us last week, but it's going to happen. I am currently re-assessing a new entry point so we don't miss out on what will likely be a considerable move. (0% successful)
AUD/USD (Ordered, Not Yet Open)
Our entry point to this sell this pair has not yet been reached. My order is still active, and I will update you if anything changes. For immediate updates on my trading activities, follow me on twitter (open an account and search for BDIforex (all one word) in the search bar). See below for more details.
Overall, it was certainly not the best week, but in re-evaluating the numbers and trends, there was nothing reckless about this week. My stops were kept tight, and the risks were calculated. There was nothing flimsy in my reasoning or research. Weeks like this provide as stark reminders of the Number 1 Rule in trading (or investing in general): Never invest more than you can afford to loose. Again, be on the look out to find out exactly what that means to you in future blogs. I will help you to know how much you to trade depending on how averse you are to risk and how much you are willing to invest into FX Trading. I win when YOU win! And to win, you have to take a couple of losses in the process. The key is to maintain enough of a nest egg to continue making smart trades even if a few of them don't work out as expected.
Expect updates on trades soon, as there are some pairs that look quite good at the moment.
Sample Portfolio:
Initial Investment: $500
Weekly Pip Gain: -280
Weekly Gains: -50%
Current Balance: $250
Portfolio Chart:
Status: Pair: Action: Result:
closed, AUD/JPY sell 1 unit, +30 pips
closed, AUD/JPY sell 1 +1 unit, -60 pips
closed, EUR/JPY sell 1 +1 unit, -150 pips
closed, USD/CAD buy 1 unit, -100 pips
Weekly Total: 4 trades, Trade Report Card 25%, or 1/4 trades profitable (25%) -280 pips
Life Total: 4 trades, Trade Report Card: 25% or 1/4 trades profitable (25%) -280 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone.
www.twitter.com, search for Aaron Reid or BDIForex
Monday, May 18, 2009
Bought AUD/USD
Evaluation:
AUD/JPY trade was successful. The entry point was met, and very soon after the price rose to our take profit level.
New Trade:
I sold 1 unit of AUD/JPY at 0.7380. I will sell another unit if it reaches 0.7385. My stop loss limit is set at 0.7420, and my take profit point is 0.7260.
Success Rate:
1/1, 100%
Hypothetical Portfolio:
AUD/JPY: +30 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone.
www.twitter.com, search for Aaron Reid or Forex Trader
AUD/JPY trade was successful. The entry point was met, and very soon after the price rose to our take profit level.
New Trade:
I sold 1 unit of AUD/JPY at 0.7380. I will sell another unit if it reaches 0.7385. My stop loss limit is set at 0.7420, and my take profit point is 0.7260.
Success Rate:
1/1, 100%
Hypothetical Portfolio:
AUD/JPY: +30 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone.
www.twitter.com, search for Aaron Reid or Forex Trader
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Buy AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY has been on decline as fears in the market grow and people become risk averse, but I am expecting the AUD to bounce and recover slightly.
Buying 1 unit of AUD/JPY at 70.80, and another unit at 70.45 if it gets that low. Stop loss will be at 70.30. Plan to take profit at 71.65 for the first unit, and at 72.00 for the second unit.
Buying 1 unit of AUD/JPY at 70.80, and another unit at 70.45 if it gets that low. Stop loss will be at 70.30. Plan to take profit at 71.65 for the first unit, and at 72.00 for the second unit.
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