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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Commodity Prices and the USD: The Big Picture

We experienced a huge drop in commodity prices today falling more than 2 percent.  The question is: What are the implications of this decline?  Here's what the research says:

First, it was the catalyst for drop in the commodity currencies, namely the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars.  All three of these currencies lost ground today.

Second, the severity of the drop in commodity prices have some questioning whether a top has formed in oil, gold and copper.  If US data continues to be positive, the US dollar has the potential to rise further and push commodities prices lower still. 

But many experts aren't ready to call it a top quite yet though.  There is no indication that the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates anytime soon, and it is even possible that they don't raise them for the remainder of the year.  This can keep the US dollar valued lower, and a lower dollar usually means higher commodity prices. 

A further decline in commodities cannot be ruled out, certainly if the US data continues to surprise to the upside, but over all, my research suggests that commodities remain bullish in the long term.

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