The analysis all adds up to the USD gaining strength against the AUD, but thin trading my cause some wacky price action, so I am going pretty light on this one.
I am selling AUD/USD at 82.750 with a stop loss of 83.00 and an open take profit at 82.00.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
Friday, July 31, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Closing USD/CAD
Hi,
I am closing my open USD/CAD trade for a small 17 pip ($150/$15 per unit) loss. I don't like what I am seeing and think we are on the wrong side of this trade. Look to re-enter at a later date.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
I am closing my open USD/CAD trade for a small 17 pip ($150/$15 per unit) loss. I don't like what I am seeing and think we are on the wrong side of this trade. Look to re-enter at a later date.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
USD to Benefit from the End of Risk Rally
Hi Traders,
I am looking at the USD/CAD pair, and I think that we may be looking at the end of the rally in riskier stocks and currencies. I am going to go very light on 1 unit of USD/CAD in anticipation that the US Dollar will strengthen as stocks decline. Due to the fact there is only preliminary evidence that the risk rally is over, I am keeping my stop loss quite tight.
USD/CAD buy 1 unit at 109.175, SL = 108.900, TP is open at the moment. Stay posted as I may look for a quick exit as things develop.
Risk: 30 pips or $280/$28 per unit
Reward: Open
I am looking at the USD/CAD pair, and I think that we may be looking at the end of the rally in riskier stocks and currencies. I am going to go very light on 1 unit of USD/CAD in anticipation that the US Dollar will strengthen as stocks decline. Due to the fact there is only preliminary evidence that the risk rally is over, I am keeping my stop loss quite tight.
USD/CAD buy 1 unit at 109.175, SL = 108.900, TP is open at the moment. Stay posted as I may look for a quick exit as things develop.
Risk: 30 pips or $280/$28 per unit
Reward: Open
Trade Recommendations in Anticipation of Beige Book Report
Hi Day Traders:
The Beige Book is due to come out tomorrow at 2pm, and analysts are anticipating a less than stellar economic report. The BB will be reporting on the economic data from early June through July. A poor report will likely result in the selling of riskier assets such as stocks and commodities. Riskier currencies such as the JPY-crosses (EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, etc) are the ones most likely to be affected by this report, I am placing orders to go short (sell) a couple of those currencies. Below is my recommendation:
EUR/JPY sell at 133.250, stop loss order at 134.160, take profit at 132.25
Risk: 80 pips or $900/$90 per unit (1 unit is $100,000, or $10,000 for smaller accounts)
Reward: 105 pips or $1100/$111 per unit (1 unit is $100,000/$10,000 for smaller accounts)
GBP/JPY sell at 156.100
Risk: 30 pips or $320/$32 per unit
Reward: 229 pips or $2410/$241 per unit
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
The Beige Book is due to come out tomorrow at 2pm, and analysts are anticipating a less than stellar economic report. The BB will be reporting on the economic data from early June through July. A poor report will likely result in the selling of riskier assets such as stocks and commodities. Riskier currencies such as the JPY-crosses (EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, etc) are the ones most likely to be affected by this report, I am placing orders to go short (sell) a couple of those currencies. Below is my recommendation:
EUR/JPY sell at 133.250, stop loss order at 134.160, take profit at 132.25
Risk: 80 pips or $900/$90 per unit (1 unit is $100,000, or $10,000 for smaller accounts)
Reward: 105 pips or $1100/$111 per unit (1 unit is $100,000/$10,000 for smaller accounts)
GBP/JPY sell at 156.100
Risk: 30 pips or $320/$32 per unit
Reward: 229 pips or $2410/$241 per unit
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
AUD/NZD Sell Recommendation
Hi Traders,
I am going short on 1 unit of AUD/USD at 125.650 which has already been filled. The Stoploss is 126.510, and the take profit is set at 126.300. I may add to this position later, so I will keep you posted.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
I am going short on 1 unit of AUD/USD at 125.650 which has already been filled. The Stoploss is 126.510, and the take profit is set at 126.300. I may add to this position later, so I will keep you posted.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
Thursday, July 23, 2009
EUR/USD Long Position Ordered
Hi,
I am going to go long (buy) on EUR/USD at 141.250 . The stoploss is 140.800 and take profit is 1.43500. The pair is still trading strangely, but the over triangle is in tact. So giving it a go with a light trade and a tight stoploss.
FYI, looking for a good entry for the USD/CAD. There is long-term trade potential here.
From the Desk of:
Aaron Reid
I am going to go long (buy) on EUR/USD at 141.250 . The stoploss is 140.800 and take profit is 1.43500. The pair is still trading strangely, but the over triangle is in tact. So giving it a go with a light trade and a tight stoploss.
FYI, looking for a good entry for the USD/CAD. There is long-term trade potential here.
From the Desk of:
Aaron Reid
Closing EUR/USD Early
Hi,
I closed my position early for a small profit of 40 pips. Turns out it would have hit the target of 141.500 that I was looking for, but seeing at it was a bit of a riskier trade to begin with, I saw my 40 pips and took it. Looking for another entry point to go long, stay tuned. My entry point will be calculated shortly.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
I closed my position early for a small profit of 40 pips. Turns out it would have hit the target of 141.500 that I was looking for, but seeing at it was a bit of a riskier trade to begin with, I saw my 40 pips and took it. Looking for another entry point to go long, stay tuned. My entry point will be calculated shortly.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Making a Move on EUR/USD
The markets are incredibly flat right now. There is no real signal indicating direction, and until that changes we remain in limbo.
As a bit of a riskier trade, I am going to sell a unit of Eur/Usd at 1.42500. The stop loss will be at 1.4300, and take profit at 1.41500. If you haven't got much of an appetite for risk but want to get in on something, enter at 1.42750 with the same stop loss, and take your profit early, such as 1.4200. Although it may be prudent to sit this one out, the market really could go anywhere from here. Take the night off and relax.
This mundane price action is typical for the summer, so this is nothing out of the ordinary. Things do improve as traders return to the action from holiday.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
As a bit of a riskier trade, I am going to sell a unit of Eur/Usd at 1.42500. The stop loss will be at 1.4300, and take profit at 1.41500. If you haven't got much of an appetite for risk but want to get in on something, enter at 1.42750 with the same stop loss, and take your profit early, such as 1.4200. Although it may be prudent to sit this one out, the market really could go anywhere from here. Take the night off and relax.
This mundane price action is typical for the summer, so this is nothing out of the ordinary. Things do improve as traders return to the action from holiday.
From the Desk of
Aaron Reid
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Going Short on USD/CAD
Good Evening!
Making a trade (at long last!) I am going short (selling) on a unit of USD/CAD at 1.11250, and 2 more at 1.11600.
I am expecting the USD to weaken further into 1.09800, but I will take profit at 1.10, and if I have the other units hold onto them to see if we can squeeze out 1.09800 or lower.
Recommended by:
Aaron Reid
Making a trade (at long last!) I am going short (selling) on a unit of USD/CAD at 1.11250, and 2 more at 1.11600.
I am expecting the USD to weaken further into 1.09800, but I will take profit at 1.10, and if I have the other units hold onto them to see if we can squeeze out 1.09800 or lower.
Recommended by:
Aaron Reid
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Evaluation of Week Ending May 29,2009
This week might seem like a week of missed opportunities, but really, it only seems that way because many of our entry and and exit points were cautious. Not a bad thing, but it means the temptation to kick yourself when every trade would have worked out. The key to be a successful trader though, is to go on what you know, and to recognize that you can't see into the future. You've got to assess the risk on every trade you make, and if you start letting previous trades get to you, that's when you make emotional mistakes that cost you money. Erring on caution is less likely to lose you money, but erring on emotion and non-calculated risks can wreak havoc on your bank account. You've got to bide your time, and then strike when the reward is in tune with the risk and your bank balance, and your appetite for risk. Trading is a game of patience, and we've been tested in that all week. All said and done, we're in the black, so while the missed opportunities can hurt a little, we can come away saying we've done alright this week.
USD/CAD (closed, profit)
There were signs that the USD was bottoming out and we timed our entry point to go long on the pair (Buy USD) on Monday May 24th. As the trade matured, a reassessment of a number of factors lead me to dump the pair for a small 15 pip profit. The news of the 101 billion dollars of government debt notes to be auctioned off this week certainly indicated that the USD bounce we were hoping to get in on was more likely a blip. It didn't help that the markets were pretty thin due to the holiday Monday in a number of countries. A thinner market makes for more unpredictable fluctuations.
EUR/USD (closed, profit)
The thin market also made me nervous about the EUR/USD short (sold EUR) initiated on the holiday Monday, and I decided to bail at the break even point. It turns out it was overly cautious, and the pair did eventually drop, but hind sight is always 20/20.
AUD/USD (never an active trade)
The entry point to get short on this pair (sell AUD) was just missed, but all systems pointed to go in terms of leaving the order open and sell the pair when the price came back up to our entry point. I got word that some of you got in, and others did not. I was one of the ones who missed the entry point and my order was not fulfilled. The price of the pair hit our entry point just barely and so briefly that not all orders were fulfilled before the price fell shy. Our take profit point of 74.75 was not reached, but I believe many of my followers got out at around 77.7 as it didn't look as though it was going to mature any further in our favour.
USD/CAD (open, in profit)
On May 27th I sold a unit at 1.1110 and this trade is still active, up about 200 pips. Our take profit level is at 1.087, but I may adjust that to somewhere in the 1.05 range, and adding another unit is not out of the question either. Keep posted on my trades as I make them by following me on twitter. The pair has been in decline because of the treasuries, but if stocks continue to be on the rise, that decline is set to continue. Some speculate that USD/CAD could trade at par by the end of the year, but we'll see what the markets have to say about that.
USD/CAD +15 pips
EUR/USD 0 pips
USD/CAD (still open, at approximately +200 pips)
Weekly Evaluation and Performance:
Weekly Gains: +15 pips, $15
Total Gains: -265 pips, down 53% of original investment
Sample Portfolio:
Initial Investment: $500
Weekly Pip Gain: +15
Weekly Monetary Gains: +$15
Current Balance: $265
Portfolio Activity and Performance:
Status - Pair - Action - Result
closed, USD/CAD, buy 1 unit, +15 pips or +$15
closed, EUR/USD, sell 1 unit, +0 pips
open, USD/CAD, sell 1 unit, (unrealized profit at 208 pips, or $190)
Weekly Trade Total: 2 completed trades this week
Weekly Report Card: 100% or 2/2 trades profitable, +15 pips
Trade Total: 6 completed trades
Trade Report Card: 50% or 3/6 trades profitable, -265 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone. Go to www.twitter.com search for Aaron Reid or BDIForex
USD/CAD (closed, profit)
There were signs that the USD was bottoming out and we timed our entry point to go long on the pair (Buy USD) on Monday May 24th. As the trade matured, a reassessment of a number of factors lead me to dump the pair for a small 15 pip profit. The news of the 101 billion dollars of government debt notes to be auctioned off this week certainly indicated that the USD bounce we were hoping to get in on was more likely a blip. It didn't help that the markets were pretty thin due to the holiday Monday in a number of countries. A thinner market makes for more unpredictable fluctuations.
EUR/USD (closed, profit)
The thin market also made me nervous about the EUR/USD short (sold EUR) initiated on the holiday Monday, and I decided to bail at the break even point. It turns out it was overly cautious, and the pair did eventually drop, but hind sight is always 20/20.
AUD/USD (never an active trade)
The entry point to get short on this pair (sell AUD) was just missed, but all systems pointed to go in terms of leaving the order open and sell the pair when the price came back up to our entry point. I got word that some of you got in, and others did not. I was one of the ones who missed the entry point and my order was not fulfilled. The price of the pair hit our entry point just barely and so briefly that not all orders were fulfilled before the price fell shy. Our take profit point of 74.75 was not reached, but I believe many of my followers got out at around 77.7 as it didn't look as though it was going to mature any further in our favour.
USD/CAD (open, in profit)
On May 27th I sold a unit at 1.1110 and this trade is still active, up about 200 pips. Our take profit level is at 1.087, but I may adjust that to somewhere in the 1.05 range, and adding another unit is not out of the question either. Keep posted on my trades as I make them by following me on twitter. The pair has been in decline because of the treasuries, but if stocks continue to be on the rise, that decline is set to continue. Some speculate that USD/CAD could trade at par by the end of the year, but we'll see what the markets have to say about that.
USD/CAD +15 pips
EUR/USD 0 pips
USD/CAD (still open, at approximately +200 pips)
Weekly Evaluation and Performance:
Weekly Gains: +15 pips, $15
Total Gains: -265 pips, down 53% of original investment
Sample Portfolio:
Initial Investment: $500
Weekly Pip Gain: +15
Weekly Monetary Gains: +$15
Current Balance: $265
Portfolio Activity and Performance:
Status - Pair - Action - Result
closed, USD/CAD, buy 1 unit, +15 pips or +$15
closed, EUR/USD, sell 1 unit, +0 pips
open, USD/CAD, sell 1 unit, (unrealized profit at 208 pips, or $190)
Weekly Trade Total: 2 completed trades this week
Weekly Report Card: 100% or 2/2 trades profitable, +15 pips
Trade Total: 6 completed trades
Trade Report Card: 50% or 3/6 trades profitable, -265 pips
Want to get up to the minute details on my trades? Join me on twitter and you can get my most recent orders and trades emailed to you or sent to your mobile phone. Go to www.twitter.com search for Aaron Reid or BDIForex
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