Is Oil Worth Holding On To?

I will be holding on to my oil position through the overnight unless my stop loss or limit order is hit. 

For those needing catch-up I purchased oil at 97.75, have a stop loss of 97, and limit order of 99.8. 

Signing off for the day...

Is it Time to Go Long on Oil?

The set up for oil was good enough for me.  As mentioned this morning, I placed an order to buy if the price dipped to 97.75 and this order automatically got filled.  My stop loss is set for 97, and limit is set at 99.8 just in case it doesn't peirce 100.00.


To view the analysis please see:  CV Analysis

Possible Opportunity to Buy Oil

If oil slips back to 97.75 I will be looking to buy. 

I have set a limit order to trigger at 99.80, just shy of the psychological 100 mark to ensure I lock in profits.  My stop loss is set to an even 97.00.

Cheers.

Are Gold and Silver Carving Out a Bottom?

It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.

Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.

While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.

Read more...

A Sneak Peak: Where is the GPB/USD Headed?

Here is my take on the markets based on where I think the following pairs are headed.  This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but simply a sneak peak into my account.

A Peak Into My Forex Account

Here is my forex account as of 10:53pm Thursday July 12, 2012.

I plan on holding these a bit longer to see what profit I can squeeze out of them but may cash out part of what I am holding just to lock in some profit, but will keep you posted on that.

What I am holding in My Forex Account

Well, it seems as though I have neglected this little blog of mine.  I am coming to the realization that blogging may not be my forte. 

For the record, I actually visit my website regularly to access the links.  This site contains all the resourses I use to trade, so despite the lack of new content, it still has everything I need to research and make a trade.

I will delve back into the idea of blogging slowly.  For the time being I commit to posting updates on my current holdings.  Here are mine as of July 5, 2012:

For our newbies out there, this chart shows that I am shorting XAU/USD (gold), USD/JPY, USOil, and the S&P.  The price I bought it for is the amount shown in the cost basis, the stop loss shows where I am going to cut my losses, and the limit is where I plan to take my profit. 

Happy Trading,

AR

Silver May Stall at Weekly Bollinger Band

A daily close above 41.20 dampens any bearish view when it comes to silver, but short opportunities may exist should price reach the Bollinger band on the weekly chart, which currently sits 43.20.  The weekly Bollinger remains closed suggesting stops can be kept reasonably tight.  Conservative traders may consider taking profit early on half or more of their units, leaving remaining units open after moving stoploss to break-even. 

Price of silver at time of posting is 41.741.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.  Trading foreign currencies carries considerable risk.  To learn more about how to trade see th e Start Here or Learn Forex section.  For specific buy and sell recommendations, seek the advice of a certified professional.  Click on the Trade Ideas section for some of the options available to you. 

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Find out just how knowledgeable you are of Elliot Wave Analysis by taking this test:  Elliot Wave Test

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U.S. Dollar Falls Despite Strong U.S. Economic News. Why?

And more importantly, what's next for the buck? 

A slew of positive U.S. economic reports hit the morning newswires on March 3:

•U.S. initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 2008
•U.S. unemployment aid requests fell to a 3-year low
•U.S. productivity in Q4 2010 rose strongly, while labor costs fell
•U.S. stock futures pointed to a strong open -- and the DJIA shot up 150+ points right out of the gate

Oh, and crude oil fell on March 3, too -- not by much, not below $100, but hey...

So here's the question: If most investors had to forecast which way the U.S. dollar would move after news like that, you'd probably think, “Up!” -- right?

Right. Yet the USD declined on March 3. The losses started early in overnight trading, and at 8:30 AM -- just as the “good news” above was released -- the dollar took an especially hard beating. The EURUSD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex pair) shot up from near $1.3750 on March 2 to $1.3970 on March 3, a 220-pip rally.

To be fair, there was one fly in the ointment of the day’s “good news”: European Central Bank President Trichet hinted that they may raise interest rates next month -- which, in “fundamental” theory, is bullish for the euro. But is a possible rate hike next month really worth that much more than the hard facts suggesting a U.S. economic recovery already under way? Why did forex traders choose to overlook the slew of real, current positive U.S. economic reports in favor of a future promise of “good news” from Europe? What colored their judgment to such a degree?

From an Elliott wave perspective, the answer is -- collective psychology. This reaction shows you how important the perception of news is for market participants; their perception is not rational, but emotional. When forex traders feel bullish, they buy regardless of “bad news.” When they have a bearish bias, as they clearly did against the U.S. dollar on March 3, they brush off any “good news" and sell. In other words, it's not the news that matters, it's the focus and interpretation.

So what does this stubborn bearishness imply for the USD from here?

Our intensive Currency Specialty Service monitors the EURUSD and a dozen other forex pairs in real time. In the latest intraday update (posted at 1:25 PM Eastern on March 3) Service editor Jim Martens says that for now, “the rally from 1.3833 appears incomplete.” He then gives subscribers a short-term upper price target to look for in EURUSD.

As for the longer term, Jim's daily forecast reminds subscribers that the EURUSD’s Elliott wave pattern suggests a major move of a different kind. Jim also quotes two market sentiment measures -- the Daily Sentiment Index and the Commitment of Traders data -- that show extremes similar to those we saw at the major turning points in November 2009 and 2010.

For complete details, see our latest daily and intraday forecasts inside Currency Specialty Service online right now.

Article Source:  http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/03/U.S.-Dollar-Falls-Despite-Strong-U.S.-Economic-News.-Why.aspx